Opinion: How the Election Will Impact the Economy
Note: This article does not necessarily reflect the views of The Teen Trillionaire, and is written purely based on the author's opinions.
Results from the 2020 presidential elections have been released, so congratulations to President-elect Mr. Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Ms. Kamala Harris! The 2020 presidential elections have been the topic of attention for quite some time, and the cause of stress and anxiety for many. The presidential elections have generally given a boost to the US economy but this year might be different. So, how will the results affect our economy? Is that good or bad for us?
Let’s take a look at the two candidates’ key themes presented in their campaigns. President Trump’s campaign stressed law & order, China, and Biden’s suitability for office. Now, President-elect Biden campaigned on economic policy, healthcare, racial justice, and morality. Biden has plans for a package aimed to address the immediate economic issues caused by the current pandemic. He is a big supporter of a modified version of the Green New Deal, and also plans to reintroduce Obamacare and prescription drug reforms. With Biden’s prescription drug reform plan, the stocks for weed and marijuana and others are set to increase.
In the case that Trump had won the elections, the dollar would have a temporary increase in value as a result of trade tensions. Taking in the perspective before election results came out, depending on the winner, different market sectors will respond differently. If there is another Trump term, the big tech, financial, and carbon energy sectors of the market are expected to perform well. Under Biden, the renewable energy and infrastructure-related sectors are expected to perform better. A positive is that under both candidates, environmental, social, and governance investing is expected to increase globally.
Now take a look at international relations. Given certain phrases that have been said, it is not surprising that the US and China relations are not the best. Combined with ongoing tech wars and capital wars regarding foreign holdings, the phase-one trade deal is on hold with a very uncertain future for phase-two. The phase-one trade deal is a trade deal signed between the US and China detailing that there will be a cut on U.S. taxes on Chinese goods in exchange for China pledging to purchase more American farm, energy, and manufactured goods. It also addresses some U.S. complaints about intellectual property practices (which I, personally think is slightly unreasonable as at the same time American platforms like Facebook are also possibly violating individual intellectual property). Should the popular platform, TikTok, be collecting individual information on the American/Western users, then platforms such as Facebook should also have a more in-depth investigation, no? Moving on, U.S. relations with Europe have also taken a hard turn under Trump’s presidency. Under Biden, we can expect an improvement in the international relations of our nation.
Considering the ongoing pandemic, many Americans are placing priority on the economy and jobs (with the outburst of SARS-CoV-2 cases soaring, many people have become unemployed). There is also a circulating claim regarding job creations under different presidential terms that “‘Trump shatters world history in two months’ with millions of added jobs in May and June.” Unfortunately for many believers of the claim, he still does not top any of the previous presidents in terms of increasing employment. Of course, the huge increase of jobs in May and June is great, but just looking at the numbers won’t tell the whole picture, as we have to consider the state of the economy which still has not fully recovered from a sharp unemployment rate. The lifting of lockdowns played a huge role in this increase which is not taken into account in the claim.
With Biden’s win in the presidential elections settled, our economy is certainly going places. There is definitely going to be more action regarding climate change, healthcare, and racial injustice. Historically speaking, for one, the S&P 500 has been shown to have done better under democratic presidents that also have a divided Congress. But there is some fear of a market crash, which is common during uncertain times, when Biden’s inauguration occurs.
Written by Angel Tang